Cabbirka Muunadda
Imisa wareeg ayaa loo baahan yahay ka hor inta aysan qaab macno yeelan.
Si kalsooni macquul ah loogu ogaado god soo baxa 1 jeer 30 kiiba halkii uu ka ahaan lahaa 1 jeer 37 kiiba, waxaa loo baahan yahay qiyaastii 4,400 wareeg. God 1 jeer 35 kiiba ah, kan dhab ahaan lacag keeni lahaa, wuxuu u baahan yahay ilaa 70,000.
Maxay u badan yihiin
Calaamadda, dhowr soo bax oo dheeraad ah kun wareeg kasta, way yar tahay marka loo eego buuqa binomial-ka ee √(n·p·(1−p)) ≈ √(n/37). Buuqu wuxuu u yaraadaa sida 1/√n, sidaa darteed in hubanti-la'aanta la kala bar dhigo waxay ku kacaysaa afar jeer wareegyo badan. GodqalabGodMid ka mid ah 37-ka qol ee lambarrada leh ee rotor-ka. Sidoo kale: slot, cup.Akhri dhammaan → 1/30 ah wuxuu bixiyaa 33 soo bax kun kasta halka la filayo 27: lix soo bax oo dheeraad ah, iyadoo leexashada caadiga ahxisaabLeexashada caadiga ahXididka labajibbaarka ee kala-duwanaanshaha; masaafada caadiga ah ee natiijo ay u jirto qiimaha la filayo.Akhri dhammaan → ay qiyaastii shan tahay. Hal muunad oo kun ah si la isku halayn karo uma kala saari karto labadaas.
Qaaciddada
Imtixaan hal-dhinac ah oo hal god ah heerka 5% iyo awood 80%, n-ta loo baahan yahay waa qiyaastii ((1.645·√(p₀(1−p₀)) + 0.84·√(p₁(1−p₁))) / (p₁ − p₀))², iyadoo p₀ = 1/37 iyo p₁ ay tahay heerka laga shakisan yahay. Taasi waxay khusaysaa hal god oo hore loo doortay. Haddii aad dhammaan 37-ka god ka baarayso kan ugu kulul, ku dhufo qiyaastii laba ilaa saddex si heerka natiijooyinka been-abuurka ah (false positive) loo ilaaliyo.
Akhris wax ku ool ah
Lambar kululkhuraafaadLambar kululLambar dhowaan soo baxay in ka badan intii la filayay. Giraangir caddaalad ah waxba ma saadaaliyo.Akhri dhammaan → 300 wareeg kadib waa buuq. 3,000 kadib waa sabab aad 3,000 kale uga ururiso isla giraangirta. 30,000 kadib waxaa laga yaabaa inay tahay giraangir mudan in si jireed loo cabbiro. Ka-faa'iidaysi kasta oo eex oo taariikhda lagu diiwaangeliyay wuxuu ku dhisnaa tobanaan kun oo wareeg oo la qoray, mid walbana bilooyin ayuu qaatay.
Kharashka xogta
50 wareeg saacaddii, 10,000 wareeg waa 200 saacadood oo diiwaangelin ah, ama dhowr toddobaad oo koobiyeynta taariikho la daabacay, oo laga helay hal madaxa giraangirtaqalabMadaxa giraangirtaErey la mid ah rotor: qaybta wareegta ee sida lambarrada.Akhri dhammaan → oo la aqoonsaday oo kasiinadu aysan wareejin ama kala-qaybiyeyaal cusub u gelin muddadaas. Tani, ee maaha tirakoobka, ayaa sababta ciyaarta eexdu u dhimatay: wareegga dayactirku wuu ka gaaban yahay wareegga ururinta xogta.
Cabbirka muunadda ee faa'iidada lafteeda
Isla xisaabtaas ayaa sheegaysa inta ay qaadanayso ciyaartoy inuu ku arko faa'iidada kasiinadaxisaabFaa'iidada kasiinadaQaybta sharad kasta ee kasiinadu celcelis ahaan hayso: 2.70% roulette Yurub.Akhri dhammaan → natiijooyinkiisa: qiyaastii 1,400 wareeg oo lacag isle'eg ah hal sigma, 10,000 si faa'iidadu aan loo khaldin. Qof kasta oo sheegta in nidaam ku shaqeeyo wareegyo ka yar intaas wuxuu soo tebinayaa buuq.
Qaacido
Su'aalo
Imtixaanka qaybahagiraangirQaybQaanso isku xiran oo godad ah oo giraangirta ku taal, oo ka duwan koox ku taal shaxda sharadka.Akhri dhammaan → halkii godadka ayaa caawiya, maxaa yeelay cillad jireed badanaa waxay saameysaa qaanso, calaamadduna godadka ayay isugu darmaysaa. Ma beddesho heerka weynaanta.
Haa, haddii madaxa giraangirtu isku mid yahay oo aan dayactir lagu samayn. Taasi waa qaybta adag ee la ogaado.
Heshiis caadi ah. Waxay ka dhigan tahay in eex dhab ah oo cabbirka la sheegay ah la ogaan doono afar jeer shantii jeerba.
Kaftan yar
Buuqu wuxuu u yaraadaa sida 1/√n. Dulqaadku si ka dhakhso badan ayuu u yaraadaa.
Ilaha
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Barnhart, R. T. Beating the Wheel.