Khuraafaad: Istaraatiiji Roulette oo Had Iyo Jeer Guuleysata
“Waxaan haystaa nidaam guuleysta 80% waqtiga.” Waxaa laga yaabaa. Weli lacag ayuu khasaariyaa.
Nidaam wuxuu ka dhigi karaa fadhiyada guusha leh kuwo badan. Ma uu ka dhigi karo qiimaha la filayo mid togan, sababtoo ah sharad kasta oo uu dhigo waa −1/37 qadarkiisa, qiimayaasha la filayana waa la isku daraa. Nidaamyada sida ugu badan guuleysta ayaa sida ugu badan khasaara marka ay khasaaraan.
Sheegashada
Aaminaadda: meel uun waxaa jira istaraatiijiyad roulette oo had iyo jeer guuleysata, nidaam qadarrada lagu beddelo iyadoo lagu salaynayo natiijooyinkii hore, kaasoo roulette ka dhiga ciyaar guuleysi. Caddaynta la soo bandhigo: taxane fadhiyo guul leh, muuqaal ku saabsan sida roulette loogu guuleysto mar kasta, markhaati, xaashi xisaabeed toddobaad nasiib leh. Sheegashadu badanaa waa daacad; qofku wuu aaminsan yahay sababtoo ah way u shaqaynaysay.
Sababta ay qalad u tahay, hal sadar
Qiimayaasha la filayoxisaabQiimaha la filayoCelceliska natiijada sharad kasta muddada dheer. −1/37 ee sharadka sharad kasta oo Yurub caadi ah.Akhri dhammaan → waa la isku daraa. Haddii sharad kasta uu leeyahay EV = −1/37 qadarkiisa, taxane kasta oo sharadyo ah wuxuu leeyahay EV = −1/37 wadarta la sharadsaday, xeer kasta ha doorto qadarrada. Nidaam waa xeer lagu doorto qadarrada. Sidaa darteed nidaam kasta wuxuu leeyahay EV = −1/37 wadarta sharadyadalacagWadarta sharadyadaWadarta lacagta la sharadsaday fadhi ama muddo, oo lagu tiriyo guulaha dib loo sharadsaday. Sidoo kale: handle, action.Akhri dhammaan →. Tani waa aragti xisaabeed (Doob iyo Halmos ayaa caddeeyay 1930-meeyadii; Thorp 1969 ayaa sheegay shuruudaha), mana leh waxyaabo ka reeban xeerar xariif ah. Shuruudda keliya ee mudan in la ogaado waa sharad ugu yar: tusaalaha Thorp wuxuu $1,000 ku sharadsadaa casaansharadCasaanSharad lacag isle'eg ah oo ku saabsan 18-ka lambar ee casaanka ah. Faransiis: rouge.Akhri dhammaan →, kadib 90 senti, kadib 9 senti iyo wixii la mid ah, isagoo weligiis yaraanaya. Itimaal 18/37 ah sharadka koowaad wuu guuleystaa ciyaartoyguna wuu hormarayaa weligiis, inkastoo natiijada la filayo ay weli tahay −1/37 wax kasta oo la sharadsaday. Sharadka ugu yar ee miis dhab ah ayaa taas joojiya, isla markaasna rajo kasta oo ah in muddada dheer la hormaro.
Isku-soo-dhowaanshaha Muddada Dheer: Sharciga Tirooyinka Waaweyn ee Roulette
Sababta ay ugu muuqato inay shaqayso
KordhinnadaistaraatiijiKordhinXeer kasta oo beddela sharadka iyadoo lagu salaynayo natiijooyinkii hore. Kordhinnada tabanka ah waxay kor u qaadaan khasaare kadib, kuwa togan guul kadib.Akhri dhammaan → taban waxay ka dhigaan fadhiyada guusha leh kuwo badan. MartingaleistaraatiijiMartingaleKordhin labanlaabta sharadka khasaare kasta kadib. Eeg qaybta Istaraatiijiyadda si aad u ogaato waxa ay qabato iyo waxa aysan qaban.Akhri dhammaan → oo ka bilaabma $10 xad $500 ah wuxuu qiyaastii 80% fadhiyada 100-wareeg ah ku dhammeeyaa faa'iido dhowr unuglacagUnugSharadka saldhigga ah ee nidaam ama ciyaartoy ku shaqeeyo. Kordhinnada waxaa lagu sharxaa unugyo si ay ugu shaqeeyaan miis kasta.Akhri dhammaan → ah. Ciyaartoy u socodsiiya labaatan fadhi wuxuu ku guuleystaa lix iyo toban ka mid ah, taasna wuu xasuustaa. Afarta fadhi ee khasaaraha ah mid kastaa wuxuu khasaaraa wax ka badan inta toban fadhi oo guul ah keenaan, xisaabta labaatanka fadhina waa taban. Nidaamku ma beddelin celceliska; wuxuu khasaarooyinka u raray fadhiyo ka yar oo ka waaweyn, halkaas oo ay fududahay in loogu yeero nasiib xumo.
Tijaabada qof kasta samayn karo
Jilaaga Istaraatiijiyadda Roulette ee goobtan wuxuu socodsiiyaa 10,000 fadhi oo nidaam kasta ah, ama koodhkaaga, hal ilbiriqsi gudihiis. U dhig nidaamka aad aaminsan tahay oo akhri celceliska. Haddii celceliska uu togan yahay dejin kasta, boggan ayaa sidaas sheegi lahaa. Dejin kasta, nidaam kasta, xad miismiisXadka miiskaSharadka ugu yar iyo ugu badan ee la oggol yahay. Kan ugu badan ayaa joojiya kordhinnada labanlaabka.Akhri dhammaan → kasta wuxuu bixiyaa celcelis ah −2.70% wadarta sharadyada iyo buuq. Markhaatiyadu waa muunado hal ah; jilaagu waa muunado toban kun ah.
Nidaam aan khasaari karin
Sannadkii 1997 qoraaga poker-ka Mike Caro wuxuu daabacay nidaam roulette ah kaftan ahaan, Gambling Times-na waxay dib u daabacday 2001. Waa liis sharadyo laga fogaado: weligaa casaan ama madowsharadMadowSharad lacag isle'eg ah oo ku saabsan 18-ka lambar ee madow. Faransiis: noir.Akhri dhammaan →, kisi ama dhaban, ama eberradagiraangirEberHal godka cagaaran ee aan daboolin sharad lacag isle'eg ah, dersin ama tiir; isha faa'iidada kasiinada. Sidoo kale: single zero, 0.Akhri dhammaan →; ma jiro lambarro casaan kisi ah iyo madow dhaban ah midna; waxna ha saarin 30, ama taxanaha dheer ee godadkaqalabGodMid ka mid ah 37-ka qol ee lambarrada leh ee rotor-ka. Sidoo kale: slot, cup.Akhri dhammaan → ee ka bilaabma 11 una socda jihada saacadda ilaa 14 giraangirta Mareykanka. Xeerarka isku dar mana harayo wax lambar ah. Godadka keliya ee ka baxsan taxanahaas waa 0, 28, 9, 26, 30 iyo 2; 30 waa la mamnuucay magaciisa, inta kalena waa eber, dhaban iyo madow, ama kisi iyo casaan. Ciyaartoy raaca nidaamka weligii ma sharadsado weligiina ma khasaaro. Faa'iidadiisu waa eber, waana nidaamka roulette ee keliya ee daacad ka ah sida uu halkaas ku gaaro.
Nidaamyo magac leh, hal sadar mid kasta
Nidaamyada lagu iibiyo magac, ama sida qaaciddo guuleed roulette, wax kala duwan ma aha. Mid kastaa waa koox sharadyo ah, sharad kastana wuxuu giraangirta siiyaa 2.70%-keeda. Bollman (2024) wuxuu dhowr ka mid ah ku shaqeeyaa giraangir Mareykan ah, halkaas oo mid kastaa uu ku kaco 5.26%; halkan waxay ku yaallaan giraangir Yurub ah.
Nooca daacadda ah
Nidaamyadu waxay beddelaan qaabka fadhiga: inta jeer ee aad guuleysato, inta ay le'eg yihiin guulaha, iyo sida uu u xun yahay xaaladda ugu xun. Kuwaasi waa doorashooyin dhab ah, ciyaartoyguna wuxuu door bidi karaa qaab mid kale. Waxa aysan nidaamyadu beddelin waa qiimaha, kaasoo ah 2.70% wax kasta oo la sharadsaday, oo maadaama kordhinnadu ay sharadsadaan wax ka badan sharadka joogtada ahistaraatiijiSharad joogto ahIsla qadarka la sharadsado wareeg kasta. Saldhigga kordhin kasta lala barbardhigo.Akhri dhammaan →, waxay bixiyaan in ka badan.
Su'aalo
Lix bilood oo fadhiyo toddobaadle ah waa qiyaastii 25 fadhi. Martingale wuxuu ku guuleystaa 80% kuwaas. Fadhiyada khasaaraha ah way imanayaan, wayna ka waaweyn yihiin.
Xeerka joojintu wuxuu yareeyaa wadarta sharadyada sidaasna wuxuu yareeyaa khasaaraha la filayoxisaabKhasaaraha la filayoQiimaha la filayo oo lagu dhuftay wadarta lacagta la sharadsaday; celceliska lacagta lagu khasaaro fadhi ama muddo.Akhri dhammaan →. Ma ka dhigo mid togan.
Giraangir caddaalad ah dusheeda, maya. Waxay ka jirtaa giraangir eex lehshaybaarGiraangir eex lehGiraangir ay cilladaheeda jireed ka dhigaan godad qaarkood kuwo ka itimaal badan 1/37. Waa dhif, waxaana lagu ogaan karaa oo keliya kumanaan wareeg oo la diiwaangeliyay.Akhri dhammaan →, taasoo ah dhibaato fiisigis, ma aha nidaam.
Madadaalo Xisaabeed
Marka hore adigu isku day. Xal kasta waa qarsoon yahay; fur marka aad diyaar u tahay.
Nidaamka kaftanka ah ee Mike Caro ee 1997 ee giraangirta Mareykanka wuxuu mamnuucaa casaansharadCasaanSharad lacag isle'eg ah oo ku saabsan 18-ka lambar ee casaanka ah. Faransiis: rouge.Akhri dhammaan → iyo madowsharadMadowSharad lacag isle'eg ah oo ku saabsan 18-ka lambar ee madow. Faransiis: noir.Akhri dhammaan →, kisi iyo dhaban, iyo eberradagiraangirEberHal godka cagaaran ee aan daboolin sharad lacag isle'eg ah, dersin ama tiir; isha faa'iidada kasiinada. Sidoo kale: single zero, 0.Akhri dhammaan →; lambarrada casaanka ah ee kisiga ah iyo kuwa madow ee dhabanka ah; lambarka 30; iyo godqalabGodMid ka mid ah 37-ka qol ee lambarrada leh ee rotor-ka. Sidoo kale: slot, cup.Akhri dhammaan → kasta oo ku jira qaybta 11 ilaa 14 ee dhanka saacadda. Xeerarka mid mid u dabaq. Lambarradee ayaa u hadhay in lagu sharadsado?
Muuji xalka
Jawaab Midna. Nidaamku weligii ma sharadsado, sidaa darteed faa'iidadiisu si sax ah waa eber.
Mamnuucidda casaan, madow, kisi, dhaban iyo eberrada waxay reebaysaa lambarro keli ah iyo kooxo yaryar oo u dhexeeya 1 ilaa 36.
Casaan kisi ah iyo madow dhaban ah la'aantood waxaa hadhaya casaanka dhabanka ah (12, 14, 16, 18, 30, 32, 34, 36) iyo madowga kisiga ah (11, 13, 15, 17, 29, 31, 33, 35): lix iyo toban lambar. Mamnuucidda 30 waxay reebaysaa shan iyo toban.
Giraangirta Mareykanka, qaybta 11 ilaa 14 ee dhanka saacadda waxay daboolaysaa 32 ka mid ah 38-ka god. Lixda ka baxsan waa 0, 28, 9, 26, 30 iyo 2. Dhammaan shan iyo tobanka hadhay waxay ku jiraan qaybta, sidaa darteed xeerka ugu dambeeya isagana wuu saarayaa. Nidaam aan weligii sharadsan ayaa ah kan keliya ee aan weligii khasaarin, taasina waxay ahayd ujeeddada Caro.
Kryptos wuxuu hal mar socodsiiyaa saddex MartingaleistaraatiijiMartingaleKordhin labanlaabta sharadka khasaare kasta kadib. Eeg qaybta Istaraatiijiyadda si aad u ogaato waxa ay qabato iyo waxa aysan qaban.Akhri dhammaan →, mid kasta labo sharad lacag isle'eg ahsharadSharad lacag isle'eg ahCasaan/madow, kisi/dhaban, sare/hoose. 18 lambar, wuxuu bixiyaa 1:1.Akhri dhammaan → (sare ama hoose, kisi ama dhaban, casaan ama madow), sharadyadu waa 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, joogsina waa lix khasaare kadib. Qaado mid ka mid ah saddexda giraangir Yurub ah. Intee jeer ayuu lumiyaa dhammaan lixda sharad, meerto keliya maxay celcelis ahaan keentaa, waana intee qayb lacagta la sharadsaday?
Muuji xalka
Jawaab Wuxuu lumiyaa dhammaan lixda qiyaastii hal mar 55 meertadiiba, 1.83% waqtiga, taasina waxay ku kacaysaa 63 unuglacagUnugSharadka saldhigga ah ee nidaam ama ciyaartoy ku shaqeeyo. Kordhinnada waxaa lagu sharxaa unugyo si ay ugu shaqeeyaan miis kasta.Akhri dhammaan →. Celcelis ahaan meerto waxay lumisaa qiyaastii 0.17 unug 6.42 unug oo la sharadsaday: 2.70%, qiimaha sharad kasta oo giraangirta ah.
Sharad wuxuu lumaa fursad 19/37, eberku ku jiro. Lix isku xiga: (19/37)⁶ = 0.0183, qiyaastii 1 55 kiiba, markaasna sharadyada 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 = 63 way lumeen. Haddii kale meertadu waxay ku dhammaataa guul iyo +1 unug.
Celcelis: 1 × (1 − 0.0183) − 63 × 0.0183 = 1 − 64 × 0.0183 = −0.17 unug.
Lacagta la sharadsaday: sharadka koowaad mar walba waa la dhigaa, ka labaadna khasaare kadib oo keliya, iyo wixii la mid ah: 1 + 2 × (19/37) + 4 × (19/37)² + … + 32 × (19/37)⁵ = 6.42 unug. −0.17/6.42 = −2.70%.
Lixda wareeg ee la diiwaangeliyay waxay go'aamiyaan oo keliya dhinaca uu sharad kastaa ku jiro, giraangirtuna ma ogaan karto. Socodsiinta saddexdaba waxay saddex jibaaraysaa lacagta la sharadsaday iyo khasaaraha celceliska ah ee la socda. Bollman (2024) wuxuu nidaamka ku shaqeeyaa giraangir Mareykan ah, halkaas oo mid kastaa lumiyo lix isku xiga 2.1% waqtiga.
Kaftan yar
Inaad badanaa guuleysato iyo inaad lacag ku guuleysato waa tirooyin kala duwan.
Ilaha
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”
- Thorp, E. O. The Mathematics of Gambling.
- Doob, J. L. “Note on probability.”
- Halmos, P. R. “Invariants of certain stochastic transformations: the mathematical theory of gambling systems.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Bollman, M. Mathematics of the Big Four Casino Table Games: Blackjack, Baccarat, Craps, & Roulette.
- Bollman, M. Basic Gambling Mathematics: The Numbers Behind the Neon, 2nd ed.