Istaraatiijiyadda D'Alembert ee Roulette
Istaraatiijiyadda D’Alembert ee roulette waxay ku dartaa hal unug khasaare kadib, waxayna ka jartaa hal unug guul kadib.
Kama adkaato giraangirta. Waa kordhintaistaraatiijiKordhinXeer kasta oo beddela sharadka iyadoo lagu salaynayo natiijooyinkii hore. Kordhinnada tabanka ah waxay kor u qaadaan khasaare kadib, kuwa togan guul kadib.Akhri dhammaan → caadiga ah ee ugu siman: sharadyadu si tartiib ah ayay kor ugu leexdaan, hoos-u-dhacyadu waa dhexdhexaad, faa'iidada kasiinadana lama taabto.
Raac nidaamka
Khasaaruhu hal tallaabo ayuu kor u qaadaa. Guushu hal tallaabo ayay dib u celisaa.
Sharadyada iyo natiijooyinku waa unugyo sharadka aasaasiga ah.
Nidaamka D’Alembert ee roulette, tallaabo tallaabo
Sharadso hal unuglacagUnugSharadka saldhigga ah ee nidaam ama ciyaartoy ku shaqeeyo. Kordhinnada waxaa lagu sharxaa unugyo si ay ugu shaqeeyaan miis kasta.Akhri dhammaan →. Lumi, sharadka xiga wuxuu ka weyn yahay hal unug. Guuleyso, wuxuu ka yar yahay hal unug, weligiis kama hooseeyo hal. Intaas oo keliya. Sawiro hees-hees (seesaw): khasaare kastaa sharadka hal heer ayuu kor u qaadaa, guul kastaana dib ayay u celisaa. Rumaynta hoose waa in guulaha iyo khasaarooyinku isu dheellitirmi doonaan, sidaa darteed sharadku wuxuu ku soo noqon doonaa aasaaska. Soo jiidashadu waa in lammaane kasta oo hal guul iyo hal khasaare ah oo sharadyo isku xiga ah uu saafi ahaan bixiyo +1 unug: lumi 3, ku guuleyso 4, saafi +1.
Sidee buu u eg yahay fadhi?
Jilicsan, oo leh sharad kor u gurguurta. Maadaama khasaarooyinku ka badan yihiin guulaha 19 ilaa 18 lacagta isle'eg, sharadku wuxuu kor ugu leexdaa fadhi dheer. Sababtoo ah sharadku wuxuu ugu sarreeyaa markaad lumaysay, wuuna hooseeyaa markaad guuleysanaysay, sharadka celceliska ah ee xilliyada khasaaraha ayaa ka badan kan xilliyada guusha. Fadhiyadu way ka siman yihiin MartingaleistaraatiijiMartingaleKordhin labanlaabta sharadka khasaare kasta kadib. Eeg qaybta Istaraatiijiyadda si aad u ogaato waxa ay qabato iyo waxa aysan qaban.Akhri dhammaan →, oo leh hoos-u-dhacyolacagHoos-u-dhacHoos u dhaca laga bilaabo heerka ugu sarreeya ee raasamaalka ciyaarta ilaa heer hoose oo dambe inta fadhiga lagu jiro. Hoos-u-dhaca ugu badan waa kan ugu weyn.Akhri dhammaan → dhexdhexaad ah iyo jar la'aan, celcelis ahaanna waxay lumiyaan wax yar oo ka badan sharadka joogtada ahistaraatiijiSharad joogto ahIsla qadarka la sharadsado wareeg kasta. Saldhigga kordhin kasta lala barbardhigo.Akhri dhammaan → sababtoo ah sharadka celceliska ah ayaa ka sarreeya.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- dhexdhexaad −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 −$500
Nidaamka D’Alembert ma shaqeeyaa?
Maya. Fadhi dheellitiran wuu guuleystaa, fadhiyaduse ma sii ahaadaan kuwo dheellitiran. w guulood iyo l khasaare oo sharadyo isku xiga ah kadib natiijada saafiga ah waa w − l unug oo lagu daray sixitaan ku saabsan meesha jaranjarada aad ku jirtay. Haddii w = l natiijadu waa sax +w unug, taasoo u eg faa'iido la hubo. Dabinku waa in w = l aysan ahayn xaaladda la filayo: 37 wareeg waxaad filaysaa 18 guulood iyo 19 khasaare. Hal khasaare oo dheeraad ah oo sharad gaaray, tusaale ahaan, 8 unug wuxuu ku kacaa wax ka badan siddeed ka mid ah lammaanayaasha +1 ee la helay. Filashadu waxay noqotaa −1/37 wadarta guud ee wadarta sharadyadalacagWadarta sharadyadaWadarta lacagta la sharadsaday fadhi ama muddo, oo lagu tiriyo guulaha dib loo sharadsaday. Sidoo kale: handle, action.Akhri dhammaan →, sidii ay ahayd inay noqoto.
Maxay fadhiyada gaagaabani badanaa u guuleystaan?
Xaaladda dheellitiran waa qayb ka mid ah hal xeer oo dabooli fadhi kasta. U yeer D tirada khasaarooyinka laga jaray tirada guulaha. Fadhi N wareeg ah oo ka bilaabma hal unug wuxuu ku dhammaadaa (N − D²)/2 − D unug, inta aan sharad hal unug ah guuleysan (guul noocaas ah kadib sharadku meel ka hoosaysa uma socon karo). D = 0 taasi waa +N/2, +w-da qaybta kore. Khasaare kasta oo dheeraad ah wuxuu ku xisaabtamaa labajibbaar: 100 wareeg kadib D oo ah 4 weli wuxuu reebaa +38 unug, D oo ah 8 wuxuu reebaa +10, D oo ah 10-na wuxuu reebaa −10. Nasiibka keligiis wuxuu D u kala firdhiyaa qiyaastii √N, toban 100 wareeg kadib, ciyaar aan ebergiraangirEberHal godka cagaaran ee aan daboolin sharad lacag isle'eg ah, dersin ama tiir; isha faa'iidada kasiinada. Sidoo kale: single zero, 0.Akhri dhammaan → lahaynna faa'iidooyinka fadhiyada badan ee dheellitiran iyo khasaarooyinka kuwa yar ee hal dhinac u janjeera ayaa sax isu baabi'iya. Eberku wuxuu celcelis ahaan ku daraa hal khasaare oo dheeraad ah 37-kii wareegba, maadaama D la labajibbaaranayana kharashkiisu wuxuu u koraa si ka dhakhso badan fadhiga. Inta badan fadhiyada ilaa 100 wareeg waxay ku dhammaadaan hormar; celcelisku weligiis ma sameeyo, dhowr boqol oo wareeg kadibna inta badan fadhiyadu sidoo kale way lumiyaan.
Ka waran haddii aad rogto?
Contra-D’Alembert, oo sidoo kale loo yaqaan D’Alembert rogan, wuxuu ku daraa unug guul kadib, wuxuuna ka jaraa mid khasaare kadib. Wuxuu sax u yahay muraayadda kii asalka ahaa. Inta aan sharad hal unug ah lumin, fadhi N wareeg ah wuxuu ku dhammaadaa (D² − N)/2 + D unug, halkaas oo D hadda tahay guulaha laga jaray khasaarooyinka. Fadhi dheellitiran wuxuu lumiyaa nus unug wareeg kasta, oo keliya taxane guulo ah oo si fiican uga horreeya khasaarooyinka ayaa keena faa'iido. Sidaa darteed inta badan fadhiyadu wax yar bay lumiyaan, qaar yarna wax badan bay ku guuleystaan, oo ah qaabka ka soo horjeeda kii asalka, celcelisku waa isla 2.70% lacagta la sharadsaday.
Yuu ahaa d’Alembert?
Jean le Rond d’Alembert, xisaabyahan iyo wada-tifaftiraha Encyclopédie, ayaa maqaal 1754 ku dooday in taxane madax ah kadib, qoraal (tails) uu noqday mid ka suurtagal badan. Wuu qaldanaa, khaladka magaciisa sitaana waa nooc ka mid ah khaladka khamaarlaha. Nidaamka D’Alembert ee roulette waxaa loogu magac daray goor dambe, khamaarlayaal rumaysnaa isla fikradda. Isagu ma naqshadeyn, malaha ma taageereen.
Ma jiraan noocyo kale?
Contra-D’Alembert, kor ku xusan, wuxuu u dhaqmaa sida ParoliistaraatiijiParoliKordhin togan: labanlaab guul kadib, dib u bilow khasaare kadib ama saddex guulood oo isku xigta kadib. Sidoo kale: Martingale rogan.Akhri dhammaan → jilicsan. Ciyaartoyda qaar waxay ku daraan laba unug khasaare kadib, waxayna ka jaraan hal guul kadib, taasoo jaranjarada u janjeerisa dhinaca Martingale. Dhammaan noocyadu waxay wadaagaan isla khasaaraha la filayoxisaabKhasaaraha la filayoQiimaha la filayo oo lagu dhuftay wadarta lacagta la sharadsaday; celceliska lacagta lagu khasaaro fadhi ama muddo.Akhri dhammaan → unug kasta oo la sharadsado.
Jilaa · D'Alembert
2,000 fadhi oo sharadyo lacag isle'eg ah, laga bilaabay raasamaal ciyaareed $1,000 ah.
Sharadka aasaasiga $10 · xadka miiska $500 · 100 wareeg fadhigiiba
Inta jeer ee taxane khasaare yimaado
Sharad lacag isle'eg ah oo giraangir hal-eber ah wuxuu khasaaraa 19 wareeg 37-kiiba. Saf kasta waa fursadda in taxane wareegyo ah oo go'an dhammaantood khasaaraan, iyo inta uu ciyaartoy D’Alembert ah, oo ku daraya hal sharad aasaasi ah khasaare kasta kadib, ilaa markaas khasaaray.
| khasaarooyin isku xiga | fursad | qiyaastii 1 ee | khasaaraha ilaa hadda | sharadka xiga |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $3 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $6 | $4 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $10 | $5 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $15 | $6 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $21 | $7 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $28 | $8 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $36 | $9 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $45 | $10 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $55 | $11 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $66 | $12 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $78 | $13 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $91 | $14 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $105 | $15 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $120 | $16 |
Fursaddu waa 19/37 oo lagu dhuftay naftiisa hal mar khasaare kasta, laga tiriyo hal wareeg oo go'an. Fadhi dheer wuxuu leeyahay wareegyo badan oo taxane noocaas ahi ka bilaabmi karo, sidaa darteed fiid dhan way ka suurtagalsan tahay inta hal saf tilmaamayo.
Su'aalo
Ma laha jar, taasoo ka dhigaysa kordhinta taban ee ugu jilicsan. Kama jaban sharadka joogtada ah; wax yar buu ka qaalisan yahay.
Oo keliya xadka miiskamiisXadka miiskaSharadka ugu yar iyo ugu badan ee la oggol yahay. Kan ugu badan ayaa joojiya kordhinnada labanlaabka.Akhri dhammaan → ama raasamaalka ciyaartalacagRaasamaalka ciyaartaWadarta lacagta loo qoondeeyay ciyaarta. Maaraynta raasamaalka ciyaarta waa go'aaminta inta laga khatarinayo sharad kasta iyo fadhi kasta.Akhri dhammaan →. Fadhi khasaare dheer ah wuxuu si joogto ah kor ugu kacaa.
Madadaalo Xisaabeed
Marka hore adigu isku day. Xal kasta waa qarsoon yahay; fur marka aad diyaar u tahay.
Waxaad ciyaartaa D’Alembert-ka casaansharadCasaanSharad lacag isle'eg ah oo ku saabsan 18-ka lambar ee casaanka ah. Faransiis: rouge.Akhri dhammaan → 50 wareeg, adigoo ka bilaabaya hal unuglacagUnugSharadka saldhigga ah ee nidaam ama ciyaartoy ku shaqeeyo. Kordhinnada waxaa lagu sharxaa unugyo si ay ugu shaqeeyaan miis kasta.Akhri dhammaan →, weligaana kuma guulaysan sharad hal unug ah (guul noocaas ah kadib sharadku ma lahaan lahayn meel ka hoosaysa oo uu u dego). Waxaad ku dhammaysaa 27 khasaare iyo 23 guul. Imisa unug ayaad faa'iido ama khasaare ku jirtaa? Iyo 29 khasaare iyo 21 guul?
Muuji xalka
Jawaab +13 unug 27 khasaare, −15 unug 29. Laba wareeg oo konton ka mid ah oo dhinaca kale u dhaca waxay ku kacaan 28 unug.
D ugu yeer khasaaraha laga jaray guulaha. Natiijadu waa (N − D²)/2 − D N wareeg. 27 khasaare iyo 23 guul, D = 4: (50 − 16)/2 − 4 = 17 − 4 = +13. 29 iyo 21, D = 8: (50 − 64)/2 − 8 = −7 − 8 = −15.
Sababta xeerku u shaqeeyo: sharadku had iyo jeer waa hal unug oo lagu daray khasaaraha ilaa hadda, laga jarayna guulaha ilaa hadda. Khasaare kasta oo guul dambe tirtirto wuxuu sameeyaa lammaane, lumi s kadibna ku guulayso s + 1, kaas oo saafi keena +1 unug, sida shaxda kore muujinayso. N wareeg gudahood, (N − D)/2 lammaane oo noocaas ah ayaa sameysma, qiimahoodu waa +(N − D)/2. D-da khasaare ee haray waxaa la dhigay sharadyo 1, 2 … D markii kor loo socday, weligoodna lama tirtirin; waxay ku kacaan 1 + 2 + … + D = D(D + 1)/2. Wada jir: (N − D)/2 − D(D + 1)/2 = (N − D²)/2 − D.
Labajibbaarku waa sheekada oo dhan. Fadhi dheelli ah wuxuu bixiyaa nus unug wareeggiiba, tallaabo kasta oo dheellitirka ka fogaataana waxay ku kacdaa wax ka badan tii ka horreysay.
Waxaad ciyaartaa D’Alembert-ka rogan casaan 100 wareeg, adigoo ka bilaabaya hal unug, sharad hal unug ahna weligii ma lumo. Waxaad ku dhammaysaa 52 guul iyo 48 khasaare. Xaggee ayaad taagan tahay? Iyo 60 guul iyo 40 khasaare?
Muuji xalka
Jawaab −38 unug 52 guul, +170 60. Hormoodnimo yar oo guulo ah weli way lumisaa; mid weyn oo keliya ayaa wax keenta.
D ugu yeer guulaha laga jaray khasaaraha. Natiijadu waa (D² − N)/2 + D N wareeg.
52 guul iyo 48 khasaare: D = 4, sidaa darteed (16 − 100)/2 + 4 = −42 + 4 = −38.
60 guul iyo 40 khasaare: D = 20, sidaa darteed (400 − 100)/2 + 20 = 150 + 20 = +170.
Sababta: guul kasta oo khasaare dambe tirtiro wuxuu sameeyaa lammaane, ku guulayso s kadibna lumi s + 1, kaas oo saafi keena −1. D-da guul ee haray waxaa la dhigay sharadyo 1, 2 … D markii kor loo socday, weligoodna lama tirtiro; waxay keenaan D(D + 1)/2. N wareeg gudahood, (N − D)/2 lammaane ayaa sameysma, sidaa darteed wadartu waa D(D + 1)/2 − (N − D)/2 = (D² − N)/2 + D.
Waa xeerka D’Alembert-ka asalka ah oo calaamadaha la rogay: halkaas, dheellitirku wuxuu keenaa nus unug wareeggiiba, dheelli-la'aantana waa la ciqaabaa; halkan, dheellitirku wuxuu ku kacaa nus unug wareeggiiba, dheelli-la'aantana waa la abaal-mariyaa.
Kaftan yar
Loogu magac daray xisaabyahan qaladay lacagta qadaadiicda.
Ilaha
- RouletteDoc. Sharaxaadda istaraatiijiyadda iyo tusaalooyin.
- Roulette77. Sharaxaadda istaraatiijiyadda iyo tusaalooyin.
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, daabacaadda 2aad.