Muhiimadda Tirakoobka
“Muhiim” macnaheedu waa wax aan suurtagal ahayn haddii giraangirtu caddaalad tahay, ee maaha “dhab” mana aha “faa'iido leh”.
p-value 0.05 ah macnaheedu waa in giraangir caddaalad ahi ay soo saari lahayd qaab sidan u leexsan hal mar labaatankiiba. Haddii aad eegto labaatan giraangir, mid ayaa si nasiib ah u gudbi doonta.
Waa maxay p-value
ItimaalkaxisaabItimaalFursadda natiijo, 0 ilaa 1 ama 0% ilaa 100%. Hal lambar: 1/37 = 2.70%.Akhri dhammaan → in la arko leexasho ugu yaraan la weyn tan la arkay, haddii giraangirtu caddaalad ahaan lahayd. Waa hadal ku saabsan xogta iyadoo male la qaatay, ee kuma saabsana giraangirta. p-valueshaybaarp-valueItimaalka in la arko leexasho ugu yaraan la weyn tan la arkay haddii giraangirtu caddaalad ahaan lahayd.Akhri dhammaan → 0.03 ah waxay leedahay: giraangir caddaalad ahi tan way samaysaa 3% waqtiga. Ma laha: waxaa jira 97% fursad in giraangirtu eex leedahay. Hadalka labaad wuxuu u baahan lahaa in la ogaado sida ay giraangirrada eexda lihishaybaarGiraangir eex lehGiraangir ay cilladaheeda jireed ka dhigaan godad qaarkood kuwo ka itimaal badan 1/37. Waa dhif, waxaana lagu ogaan karaa oo keliya kumanaan wareeg oo la diiwaangeliyay.Akhri dhammaan → u badan yihiin bilowga, kasiino casri ahna aad bay ugu yar yihiin, taas oo ka dhigaysa natiijo keli ah oo muhiim ah mid aad ugu dhow nasiib-ku-dhac halkii ay helitaan ahaan lahayd.
Isbarbardhigyo badan
Imtixaan kasta oo aad ku samayso giraangir caddaalad ah wuxuu leeyahay 5% fursad uu ku gudbo heerka 5%. Imtixaan labaatan giraangir, mid ayaa gudba. Imtixaan hal giraangir labaatan xilli oo kala duwan, mid ayaa gudba. Imtixaan hal muunad 37 kooxayn godqalabGodMid ka mid ah 37-ka qol ee lambarrada leh ee rotor-ka. Sidoo kale: slot, cup.Akhri dhammaan →, lix kooxayn qaybgiraangirQaybQaanso isku xiran oo godad ah oo giraangirta ku taal, oo ka duwan koox ku taal shaxda sharadka.Akhri dhammaan → iyo saddex kooxayn midab, wax uun ayaa gudba. Daawadu waa inaad imtixaanka go'aansato ka hor intaadan xogta eegin, hal mar samayso, kuna xaqiijiso xog cusub. Baaritaanka hela giraangir “eex leh” badanaa waa waxa soo saaray natiijada.
Muhiimad iyo cabbir
Muunad aad u weyn waxay ka dhigi kartaa eex yar mid muhiim ah. God ku dhaca 1/36.5 halkii 1/37 waa cillad dhab ah oo gaari lahayd muhiimad dhowr milyan oo wareeg gudahood, haddana lacag bay lumin lahayd lacag-bixinlacagLacag-bixinWaxa sharad guuleystay soo celiyo, oo lagu sheego “X ilaa 1” oo lagu daro sharadka la soo celiyay.Akhri dhammaan → 35 ilaa 1 ah. Waxa ciyaartoyga muhiim u ah waa cabbirka saamaynta: god uun ma ku dhacaa 1/36 ama ka wanaagsan, intee le'egna? Chi-square-ku wuxuu kaa warramaa giraangirta; heerka ku-dhaca oo keliya ayaa kaa warrama sharadka.
Awood
Khaladka kale waa seegidda eex jirta. 1,000 wareeg, god ku dhaca 1/30 (eex aad u weyn) waxaa la ogaadaa qiyaastii nus waqtiga oo keliya heerka 5%. Cabbirka muunadda, ee maaha caqli-badni, ayaa tan xalliya. Bogga Cabbirka Muunadda ayaa bixiya tirooyinka.
Heer wax-ku-ool ah
Si sheegasho eex ah u xiiso leedahay: imtixaan horay loo doortay, p < 0.01 halkii 0.05, ku celin muunad madaxbannaan oo cabbir la mid ah, iyo heer ku-dhac la qiyaasay oo godadka la door bidey ah 1/34 ama ka wanaagsan ku celinta kadib. Heerkaas waxaa la gaaray dhowr jeer oo keliya taariikhda ciyaarta, weligeedna, inta diiwaannada dadweynuhu muujinayaan, giraangir casri ah oo la dayactiray.
Su'aalo
Heshiis laga soo bilaabay 1920-meeyadii. Waxba gaar ah kuma jiraan; 0.01 waa heer ka macquulsan marka aad baarayso giraangirro badan.
Suurtagal ahaan ma soo saarayso natiijooyin isle'eg. Waxay noqon kartaa saamayn dealer, khalad diiwaangelin ama dhibaato gelinta xogta. Ku celi.
Maya. Waxay kuu sheegtaa in qaybintu khaldan tahay. Falanqaynta Qaybaha iyo cabbirka saamaynta ayaa kuu sheega halka.
Madadaalo Xisaabeed
Marka hore adigu isku day. Xal kasta waa qarsoon yahay; fur marka aad diyaar u tahay.
Giraangir laba-ebergiraangirEberHal godka cagaaran ee aan daboolin sharad lacag isle'eg ah, dersin ama tiir; isha faa'iidada kasiinada. Sidoo kale: single zero, 0.Akhri dhammaan → ah oo la soo sheegay, dersinkasharadDersin1–12, 13–24 ama 25–36, wuxuu bixiyaa 2:1.Akhri dhammaan → koowaad wuxuu soo baxay 742 jeer 3,000 wareeg. Imisa leexasho caadi ahxisaabLeexashada caadiga ahXididka labajibbaarka ee kala-duwanaanshaha; masaafada caadiga ah ee natiijo ay u jirto qiimaha la filayo.Akhri dhammaan → ayay taasi ka hoosaysaa celceliska, intee jeerse ayay giraangir caddaalad ahi sidaas samayn lahayd?
Muuji xalka
Jawaab Qiyaastii 8.1 leexasho caadi ah oo hoos ah. Giraangir caddaalad ahi waxay sidaas samayn lahayd qiyaastii hal mar 3 × 10¹⁵ isku day, taas oo ah weligeed. Jawaabta lala daabacay su'aasha waxay leedahay 11.75; annaguna waxaan helnay 8.07.
Dersinka koowaad wuxuu hayaa 12 ka mid ah 38-da godqalabGodMid ka mid ah 37-ka qol ee lambarrada leh ee rotor-ka. Sidoo kale: slot, cup.Akhri dhammaan →. 3,000 wareeg celceliskiisu waa 3,000 × 12/38 = 947.4 ku dhac, kala-fidsanaan √(3,000 × 12/38 × 26/38) = 25.5 ah.
742 waa 205.4 ka hooseeya celceliska: 205.4/25.5 = 8.07 kala-fidsanaan.
Giraangir caddaalad ahi waxay saddex kala-fidsanaan ka yaraataa qiyaastii hal mar 740 isku day; siddeed kala-fidsanaan, qiyaastii hal mar 3 × 10¹⁵ (qalooca koorta, hal dhinac). Xisaabta in akhristuhu dareemay kan ugu xun saddexda dersin waxba ma beddesho oo muhiim ah. Natiijo noocan ahi waxay sheegaysaa in giraangirta, ama tirintu, ay khaldan tahay. Giraangir hal-eber ah isla tirintaasi waxay noqon lahayd 9.0 kala-fidsanaan oo hoos ah (celcelis 973.0, kala-fidsanaan 25.6).
Kaftan yar
Hal ka mid ah labaatankii giraangir ee caddaalad ah waa “muhiim”. Taasi waa macnaha tiradu.
Ilaha
- Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…”
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, su'aalaha roulette.