Tusaale Socod: Fadhi Martingale ah
Toban doollar casaan, laba jibbaar khasaare kasta kadib, miis $500 ah. Wareeg wareeg, oo ay ku jirto wareegga soo afjara.
Fadhi Martingale ah oo la jilay oo ka bilaabmay raasamaal $1,000 ah. Kow iyo afartan guul oo yaryar, kadib lix khasaare oo isku xiga iyo sharad toddobaad oo la diiday. Fadhigu wuxuu ku dhammaadaa $220 khasaare ah iyadoo markii hore $410 faa'iido la ahaa, taasina waa waxa nidaamku sameeyo.
Qorshaha
Sharadso $10 casaansharadCasaanSharad lacag isle'eg ah oo ku saabsan 18-ka lambar ee casaanka ah. Faransiis: rouge.Akhri dhammaan →. Khasaare kadib, laba jibbaar. Guul kadib, dib ugu noqo $10. Xadka miiskamiisXadka miiskaSharadka ugu yar iyo ugu badan ee la oggol yahay. Kan ugu badan ayaa joojiya kordhinnada labanlaabka.Akhri dhammaan → $500, sidaa darteed sharadyadu waa 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320 kadibna sharad $640 ah oo miisku diidi doono. Lix khasaare oo isku xiga ayaa nidaamka jebiya; isku-day kasta wuxuu leeyahay (19/37)⁶ ≈ 1.8% inuu sidaas sameeyo, fadhi 100 wareeg ahna wuxuu ka kooban yahay qiyaastii 50 isku-day. La filayo: qiyaastii 60% fursad ah in la jebiyo 100 wareeg gudahood, iyo khasaare $630 ah marka ay dhacdo.
Wareegyada 1–30
MartingaleistaraatiijiMartingaleKordhin labanlaabta sharadka khasaare kasta kadib. Eeg qaybta Istaraatiijiyadda si aad u ogaato waxa ay qabato iyo waxa aysan qaban.Akhri dhammaan → caadi ah: taxanayaal hal ilaa saddex khasaare ah, mid kasta waxaa soo afjara guul saafi ahaan keenta +$10. Wareegga 30 waxaan helnay 17 guul, mid kasta oo xiraya meerto, waxaana nahay +$170. Sharadka ugu weyn ilaa hadda wuxuu ahaa $80 saddex khasaare kadib. Wuxuu u muuqdaa mashiin daabaca waraaqo $10 ah.
Wareegyada 31–60
Wax la mid ah, oo leh hal meerto afar khasaare ah (sharadyo ilaa $160, kadib guul) oo muddo kooban miiska saaray $310 una ekaa geesinimo. 60 wareeg kadib: 41 meerto oo dhammaystirmay, +$410, meesha ugu hooseysa ee raasamaalka ciyaartalacagRaasamaalka ciyaartaWadarta lacagta loo qoondeeyay ciyaarta. Maaraynta raasamaalka ciyaarta waa go'aaminta inta laga khatarinayo sharad kasta iyo fadhi kasta.Akhri dhammaan → waxay ahayd $1,040. Histogram-ka fadhi kasta oo Martingale ah wuxuu u ekaadaa sidan inta badan dhererkiisa.
Wareegyada 61–66
K K K K K K. Sharadyo 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320: $630 ayaa lumay. Sharadka xiga wuxuu noqon lahaa $640; xadku waa $500. Nidaamku waa jabay. Waxaan sharadsan karnaa $500 (haddii uu guuleystona, weli waxaan meertada $130 hoos ugu jirnaa) ama dib ugu celin karnaa $10 oo aqbali karnaa khasaaraha. Lix madowsharadMadowSharad lacag isle'eg ah oo ku saabsan 18-ka lambar ee madow. Faransiis: noir.Akhri dhammaan → ama ebergiraangirEberHal godka cagaaran ee aan daboolin sharad lacag isle'eg ah, dersin ama tiir; isha faa'iidada kasiinada. Sidoo kale: single zero, 0.Akhri dhammaan → oo isku xiga waxay leeyihiin itimaalxisaabItimaalFursadda natiijo, 0 ilaa 1 ama 0% ilaa 100%. Hal lambar: 1/37 = 2.70%.Akhri dhammaan → 1.8% meertadiiba. Waxaan soconnay qiyaastii 45 meerto. Fursadda in barkan la gaaro meel 45 meerto gudahood waxay ahayd qiyaastii 55%. Ma ahayn nasiib xumo; wuxuu ahaa dhexdhexaadka (median).
- p10 −$1,000
- p25 −$1,000
- dhexdhexaad −$1,000
- p75 +$790
- p90 +$1,690
Xisaabaadka
$410 faa'iido 60 wareeg kadib, $220 khasaare 66 kadib. Wadarta sharadyada: qiyaastii $2,100 66 wareeg gudahood, marka loo eego $660 qof sharad joogto ah oo $10 ah sameeya. Khasaaraha la filayoxisaabKhasaaraha la filayoQiimaha la filayo oo lagu dhuftay wadarta lacagta la sharadsaday; celceliska lacagta lagu khasaaro fadhi ama muddo.Akhri dhammaan → ee $2,100 oo wadarta sharadyadalacagWadarta sharadyadaWadarta lacagta la sharadsaday fadhi ama muddo, oo lagu tiriyo guulaha dib loo sharadsaday. Sidoo kale: handle, action.Akhri dhammaan → ah waa $57; −$220-keenna dhabta ahi waa qiyaastii saddex meelood meel leexasho caadi ahxisaabLeexashada caadiga ahXididka labajibbaarka ee kala-duwanaanshaha; masaafada caadiga ah ee natiijo ay u jirto qiimaha la filayo.Akhri dhammaan → ka hooseysa, taasoo caadi u ah nidaam qaybintiisu leedahay dabo bidix oo dheer. Haddii aan ku joojinno wareegga 60 xadka faa'iidadaistaraatiijiXadka faa'iidadaBartilmaameed faa'iido oo horay loo dejiyay oo aad fadhiga ku joojinayso.Akhri dhammaan → $400 ah, waxaan ka bixi lahayn +$410, fadhiga xigana wuxuu sidi lahaa isla 1.8% meertadiiba.
Waxa fadhigu muujinayo
Martingale wuxuu sharad 48.65% ah u beddelaa taxane guuleysta 98% meertooyinkiisa una waaya 63 unuglacagUnugSharadka saldhigga ah ee nidaam ama ciyaartoy ku shaqeeyo. Kordhinnada waxaa lagu sharxaa unugyo si ay ugu shaqeeyaan miis kasta.Akhri dhammaan → 2%-ka kale. Ma beddelo khasaaraha la filayo doollar kasta; wuxuu badiyaa doollarrada. Qofkii sharadka joogtada ah ee na ag fadhiyay wuxuu sharadsaday saddex meelood meel intaas, wuxuuna celcelis ahaan waayay saddex meelood meel intaas. Ciyaartoyga nidaamkan sanad wada wuxuu ku guuleysan doonaa inta badan fiidadka, sanadkana wuu ku khasaari doonaa.
Inta jeer ee taxane khasaare yimaado
Sharad lacag isle'eg ah oo giraangir hal-eber ah wuxuu khasaaraa 19 wareeg 37-kiiba. Saf kasta waa fursadda in taxane wareegyo ah oo go'an dhammaantood khasaaraan, iyo inta uu ciyaartoy Martingale ah, oo labanlaaba khasaare kasta kadib, ilaa markaas khasaaray.
| khasaarooyin isku xiga | fursad | qiyaastii 1 ee | khasaaraha ilaa hadda | sharadka xiga |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
Fursaddu waa 19/37 oo lagu dhuftay naftiisa hal mar khasaare kasta, laga tiriyo hal wareeg oo go'an. Fadhi dheer wuxuu leeyahay wareegyo badan oo taxane noocaas ahi ka bilaabmi karo, sidaa darteed fiid dhan way ka suurtagalsan tahay inta hal saf tilmaamayo.
Su'aalo
Sagaal khasaare ayaa jebiya halkii lix: 0.25% meertadiiba, iyo $5,110 oo lumay marka ay dhacdo. Hoos-u-dhac ka naadirsan, ka dheer, isla −2.70%.
Wuxuu guuleysan lahaa 48.65% waqtiga, meertadana si kastaba wuxuu uga tagi lahaa −$130. Ma jiro dhaqaaq wanaagsan Martingale jabay kadib; waxaa jira oo keliya sharadka aad xigta doorato.
Haa, fadhigaas. Maya, celceliska fadhiyada oo dhan.
Madadaalo Xisaabeed
Marka hore adigu isku day. Xal kasta waa qarsoon yahay; fur marka aad diyaar u tahay.
Miis $1 ilaa $500 ah, ciyaartoy MartingaleistaraatiijiMartingaleKordhin labanlaabta sharadka khasaare kasta kadib. Eeg qaybta Istaraatiijiyadda si aad u ogaato waxa ay qabato iyo waxa aysan qaban.Akhri dhammaan → ah wuxuu ka bilaabaa $1 casaansharadCasaanSharad lacag isle'eg ah oo ku saabsan 18-ka lambar ee casaanka ah. Faransiis: rouge.Akhri dhammaan → giraangir hal-ebergiraangirEberHal godka cagaaran ee aan daboolin sharad lacag isle'eg ah, dersin ama tiir; isha faa'iidada kasiinada. Sidoo kale: single zero, 0.Akhri dhammaan → ah. Imisa khasaare oo isku xiga ayaa joojiya labanlaabidda, intee ayaa lumay markaas, intee jeerna ayay dhacdaa?
Muuji xalka
Jawaab Sagaal khasaare: $511 ayaa lumay, sharadka xiguna wuxuu noqon lahaa $512. Waxay dhacdaa hal mar qiyaastii 403 taxane kiiba.
Sharadyadu waa 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 iyo 256: wadar ahaan $511. Kan tobnaad wuxuu noqon lahaa $512, oo ka badan xadka. Sharad $500 ah oo guuleysta weli wuxuu ciyaartoyga ka dhigayaa $11 hoos; mid lumana wuxuu ka dhigayaa $1,011 hoos.
Casaanku wuxuu lumaa fursad 19/37, sidaa darteed sagaal khasaare oo isku xiga fursaddoodu waa (19/37)⁹ ≈ 0.25%, hal mar qiyaastii 403 taxane kiiba. Taxane kasta oo dhammaada wuxuu keenaa $1, sidaa darteed ciyaartoygu wuxuu filan karaa qiyaastii $402 oo guulo yaryar ah ka hor khasaaraha keliya ee $511, 2.70% wax kasta oo la sharadsadayna celcelis ahaan weli waa lumayaa.
Giraangir laba-eber ah fursaddu waa (20/38)⁹, hal mar qiyaastii 323 kiiba. Bollman (2021) wuxuu daabacay “qiyaastii 1 833 kiiba”, taas oo ah (18/38)⁹, fursadda sagaal guul oo isku xiga.
Kaftan yar
Kow iyo afartan guul oo yaryar iyo hal khasaare oo weyn. Taasi waa nidaamka oo dhan.
Ilaha
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”